In this paper, I show how medical progress, conceptualized as increasing effectiveness of health spending in reducing health deficits, affects optimal lifetime health behavior and health outcomes. To that end, I set up a stochastic life cycle model with endogenous health and longevity, calibrate it for an average American in the year 2010, and use counterfactual computational experiments to examine behavior and outcomes at lower and higher levels of medical efficacy. I begin with the standard health deficit model and the consideration of optimal health expenditure and savings. I then extend the model towards choices of occupation, unhealthy consumption, and retirement. When medical effectiveness increases by 50 percent, the benchmark American is predicted to display 23 percent fewer health deficits at age 65, retire more than 10 years later, live more than 7 years longer, and experience a 10 percent increase in the value of life at age 65. Richer and better educated individuals are predicted to benefit more from medical progress in terms of reduced morbidity and increased longevity.

在本文中，我展示了医学进步（概念化为提高卫生支出在减少健康赤字方面的有效性）如何影响最佳的终生健康行为和健康结果。为此，我建立了一个具有内生健康和长寿的随机生命周期模型，针对 2010 年的普通美国人对其进行了校准，并使用反事实计算实验来检查医疗功效水平越来越低的行为和结果。我从标准健康赤字模型和最佳健康支出和储蓄的考虑开始。然后我将模型扩展到职业、不健康消费和退休的选择。当医疗效率提高 50% 时，基准美国人预计将在 65 岁时减少 23% 的健康缺陷，并在 10 多年后退休，