Samuel Huntington’s famous prediction in 1993 of “clashes of civilisations”, amid that decade’s rosy expectations of “liberal peace”, sparked wide criticism for its rebutting of the then-conventional wisdom of globalisation, global governance, and democratic peace that defined the so-called “liberal” international politics of the 1990s. However, events in recent decades have corroborated his stark prediction. In particular, conflicts between the West and non-Western rising powers have become a salient feature of international politics—an outcome shaped not only by differences in civilisational identity but also by power shifts that trigger civilisational clashes. In their quest to acquire influence better befitting their expanding material capabilities, rising powers seek to reorder the international system by shaping its rules and institutions according to their civilisational values and norms. This aspiration has generated conflict between non-Western rising powers and the West over ideational incompatibilities, global governance, and the reconfiguration of regional orders. The consequences of such civilisational conflict have led to escalating fragmentation, disorder, and instability in world politics.

中文翻译：

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当文明冲突遇到权力转移：重新思考全球混乱

塞缪尔·亨廷顿（Samuel Huntington）在 1993 年对“文明的冲突”的著名预测，在这十年对“自由和平”的乐观预期中，引发了广泛的批评，因为它反驳了当时定义世界的全球化、全球治理和民主和平的传统智慧。被称为 1990 年代的“自由”国际政治。然而，近几十年的事件证实了他的严酷预测。特别是，西方与非西方崛起大国之间的冲突已成为国际政治的一个显着特征——这种结果不仅由文明身份的差异决定，而且还由引发文明冲突的权力转移决定。在他们寻求更好地适应他们不断扩大的物质能力的影响力的过程中，新兴大国根据其文明价值观和规范制定规则和制度，寻求重新安排国际体系。这种愿望在非西方新兴大国和西方之间在理念不相容、全球治理和地区秩序重构方面产生了冲突。这种文明冲突的后果导致世界政治的分裂、混乱和不稳定不断升级。