梯级水库大坝风险评估是保证流域安全的关键,也是大坝风险管理的客观要求。结合我国梯级水库开发现状,对比单水库,分析了梯级水库大坝风险管理的复杂性。本文通过回顾梯级水库大坝风险研究的进展,总结其在科学性和实用性方面的局限性。此外,还提出了梯级水库风险评估的一些概念和方法:(1)梯级水库大坝风险分解为自身风险和附加风险,其溃坝后果分解为直接损失和潜在损失,定义影响系数,反映梯级油藏间风险传递和叠加程度;(2)提出了梯级水库大坝风险概率和后果计算的相关概念和公式,实现了大坝风险评估方法从单一水库向梯级水库的转变;(3)提出梯级水库工程等级划分方法,既考虑工程规模和社会经济发展效益,又考虑连续溃坝的可能性和后果。本研究对明确未来研究重点,促进大坝风险管理在梯级水库的实际应用具有重要意义。(2)提出了梯级水库大坝风险概率和后果计算的相关概念和公式,实现了大坝风险评估方法从单一水库向梯级水库的转变;(3)提出梯级水库工程等级划分方法,既考虑工程规模和社会经济发展效益,又考虑连续溃坝的可能性和后果。本研究对明确未来研究重点,促进大坝风险管理在梯级水库的实际应用具有重要意义。(2)提出了梯级水库大坝风险概率和后果计算的相关概念和公式,实现了大坝风险评估方法从单一水库向梯级水库的转变;(3)提出梯级水库工程等级划分方法,既考虑工程规模和社会经济发展效益,又考虑连续溃坝的可能性和后果。本研究对明确未来研究重点,促进大坝风险管理在梯级水库的实际应用具有重要意义。(3)提出梯级水库工程等级划分方法,既考虑工程规模和社会经济发展效益,又考虑连续溃坝的可能性和后果。本研究对明确未来研究重点,促进大坝风险管理在梯级水库的实际应用具有重要意义。(3)提出梯级水库工程等级划分方法,既考虑工程规模和社会经济发展效益,又考虑连续溃坝的可能性和后果。本研究对明确未来研究重点,促进大坝风险管理在梯级水库的实际应用具有重要意义。
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Risk assessment methods of cascade reservoir dams: a review and reflection
Risk assessment of cascade reservoir dams is not only the key to ensure the safety of the basin, but also the objective requirement of dam risk management. Based on the development status of cascade reservoirs in China, the complexity of dam risk management of cascade reservoirs compared with a single reservoir was analyzed. By reviewing the advances on the studies of dam risk in cascade reservoirs, this paper summarized their limitations in terms of scientificity and practicability. Moreover, some concepts and methods were proposed on the risk assessment of cascade reservoirs: (1) The dam risk of a cascade reservoir was decomposed into own risk and additional risk, the consequence of its dam breach was decomposed into direct loss and potential loss, and an influence coefficient was defined to reflect the risk transmission and superposition degree among cascade reservoirs; (2) The related concepts and formulas for the calculation of dam risk probability and consequence of cascade reservoirs were proposed, which realized the transition of dam risk assessment method from a single reservoir to cascade reservoirs; (3) A project rank classification method for cascade reservoirs was proposed, which took into account not only the project scale and benefits in socioeconomic development, but also the successive dam breaches possibility and consequences. This study is of great significance to clarify the focus of future research and promote the practical application of dam risk management in cascade reservoirs.