The world's eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) contribute disproportionately to global ocean productivity and provide critical ecosystem services to human society. The impact of climate change on EBUSs and the ecosystems they support is thus a subject of considerable interest. Here, we review hypotheses of climate-driven change in the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecology of EBUSs; describe observed changes over recent decades; and present projected changes over the twenty-first century. Similarities in historical and projected change among EBUSs include a trend toward upwelling intensification in poleward regions, mitigatedwarming in near-coastal regions where upwelling intensifies, and enhanced water-column stratification and a shoaling mixed layer. However, there remains significant uncertainty in how EBUSs will evolve with climate change, particularly in how the sometimes competing changes in upwelling intensity, source-water chemistry, and stratification will affect productivity and ecosystem structure. We summarize the commonalities and differences in historical and projected change in EBUSs and conclude with an assessment of key remaining uncertainties and questions. Future studies will need to address these questions to better understand, project, and adapt to climate-driven changes in EBUSs.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对东部边界上升流系统的影响


世界东部边界上升流系统（EBUS）对全球海洋生产力做出了巨大贡献，并为人类社会提供了关键的生态系统服务。因此，气候变化对 EBUS 及其支持的生态系统的影响是一个备受关注的话题。在这里，我们回顾了 EBUS 物理、生物地球化学和生态学中气候驱动变化的假设；描述近几十年来观察到的变化；并提出了二十一世纪的预计变化。 EBUS 历史和预测变化的相似之处包括极地地区上升流增强的趋势、上升流增强的近海岸地区变暖减缓以及水柱分层和浅滩混合层增强。然而，EBUS 将如何随气候变化演变仍然存在很大的不确定性，特别是上升流强度、水源水化学和分层有时相互竞争的变化将如何影响生产力和生态系统结构。我们总结了 EBUS 历史和预计变化的共性和差异，并以对剩余的关键不确定性和问题的评估作为结论。未来的研究需要解决这些问题，以便更好地理解、预测和适应 EBUS 中气候驱动的变化。