Observation-based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half-century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land-use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.

中文翻译：

---

东地中海和中东的气候变化和极端天气

基于观测和建模的研究已将东地中海和中东 (EMME) 地区确定为一个突出的气候变化热点。虽然有几项举措已经解决了气候变化对 EMME 部分地区的影响，但我们在此提出了一项更新的评估，涵盖了广泛的时间尺度、现象和未来路径。我们的评估基于对近期观察和预测的修订分析以及对近期关于区域气候变化原因和影响的科学文献的广泛概述。EMME 的温室气体排放量增长迅速，超过了欧盟，因此对气候变化做出了重大贡献。在过去的半个世纪里，尤其是近几十年来，EMME 的变暖速度明显快于其他有人居住的地区。同时，水文循环的变化已经变得明显。预计最近观察到的每十年约 0.45°C 的温度升高将继续，尽管全球温室气体排放的强劲减少可能会缓和这一趋势。除了平均气候条件的预计变化外，我们还呼吁关注具有潜在破坏性社会影响的极端天气事件。其中包括热浪、干旱和沙尘暴以及可能引发山洪暴雨的暴雨事件的严重程度和持续时间都在急剧增加。我们的回顾还讨论了该地区的大气污染和土地利用变化，包括城市化、荒漠化和森林火灾。最后，