We study the suspension of household debt payments (debt forbearance) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Between March 2020 and May 2021, more than 70 million consumers with loans worth $2.3 trillion entered forbearance, missing $86 billion of their payments. This debt relief can help explain the absence of consumer defaults relative to the evolution of economic fundamentals. Borrowers' self-selection is a powerful force in determining forbearance rates: relief flows to households suffering pandemic-induced shocks that would otherwise have faced debt distress. Moreover, 55 percent of forbearance is provided to less creditworthy borrowers with above median income and higher debt balances—that is, those excluded from income-based policies, such as the stimulus check program. A fifth of borrowers in forbearance continued making full payments, suggesting that forbearance acts as a credit line. By May 2021, about 60 percent of borrowers had already exited forbearance while more financially vulnerable and lower income borrowers were still in forbearance with an accumulated debt overhang of about $60 billion. Exploiting a discontinuity in mortgage eligibility under the CARES Act, we estimate that implicit government debt relief subsidies increase the rate of forbearance by about a third. Government relief is provided through private intermediaries, with shadow banks less likely to provide forbearance than traditional banks.

我们研究在 COVID-19 大流行期间暂停家庭债务支付（债务延期）。在 2020 年 3 月至 2021 年 5 月期间，超过 7000 万拥有价值 2.3 万亿美元贷款的消费者进入暂缓期，其中 860 亿美元的还款额未偿还。这种债务减免有助于解释与经济基本面的演变相关的消费者违约的情况。借款人的自我选择是决定宽容率的强大力量：救济资金流向遭受大流行引发的冲击的家庭，否则这些家庭将面临债务困境。此外，55% 的宽限期提供给收入高于中位数且债务余额较高的信用较差的借款人——即那些被排除在基于收入的政策（如刺激检查计划）之外的借款人。五分之一的宽容借款人继续全额付款，暗示宽容作为信用额度。到 2021 年 5 月，大约 60% 的借款人已经退出暂缓期，而财务状况较脆弱和收入较低的借款人仍处于暂缓期，累计债务积压约为 600 亿美元。利用 CARES 法案下抵押贷款资格的不连续性，我们估计隐性政府债务减免补贴将宽容率提高了约三分之一。政府救济是通过私人中介机构提供的，与传统银行相比，影子银行不太可能提供宽容。利用 CARES 法案下抵押贷款资格的不连续性，我们估计隐性政府债务减免补贴将宽容率提高了约三分之一。政府救济是通过私人中介机构提供的，与传统银行相比，影子银行不太可能提供宽容。利用 CARES 法案下抵押贷款资格的不连续性，我们估计隐性政府债务减免补贴将宽容率提高了约三分之一。政府救济是通过私人中介机构提供的，与传统银行相比，影子银行不太可能提供宽容。