Inflation has an anchor in people's expectations of what its longrun value will be. If expectations persistently change, then the anchor is adrift; if they differ from the central bank's target, the anchor is lost. This paper uses data on expectations from market prices, from professional surveys, and from the cross-sectional distribution of household surveys to measure shifts in this anchor. The paper's main application is to the Great Inflation in the United States. The data suggest that the anchor started drifting as early as 1967 and that this could have been spotted well before policymakers noticed it. Other applications using expectations data from Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, the United States in the 1970s, and the United States in 2021 confirm the data's usefulness to measure the inflation anchor in real time.

通货膨胀取决于人们对其长期价值的预期。如果期望持续变化，那么锚就在漂泊；如果它们与中央银行的目标不同，就会失去锚点。本文使用来自市场价格、专业调查和家庭调查的横截面分布的预期数据来衡量这一锚点的变化。这篇论文的主要应用是美国的大通货膨胀。数据表明，锚点早在 1967 年就开始漂移，而这可能在政策制定者注意到之前就已经被发现了。使用巴西、土耳其、南非、1970 年代美国和 2021 年美国预期数据的其他应用证实了该数据对实时衡量通胀锚点的有用性。