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The emergence of prolonged deadly humid heatwaves
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2022-06-10 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7750 Xiang‐Sheng Wang 1 , Lei He 2 , Xiao‐Hu Ma 1 , Qiang Bie 3 , Lin Luo 1 , You‐Cai Xiong 1 , Jian‐Sheng Ye 1
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2022-06-10 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7750 Xiang‐Sheng Wang 1 , Lei He 2 , Xiao‐Hu Ma 1 , Qiang Bie 3 , Lin Luo 1 , You‐Cai Xiong 1 , Jian‐Sheng Ye 1
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Deadly humid heat conditions exceeding human thermoregulatory capacity have been reported; however, whether and where the deadly humid heat events occur consecutively across the land surface are largely unknown. We calculate the maximum consecutive days of deadly humid heat, defined as daily maximum wet-bulb temperature (TWmax) ≥35°C, for observations of 9,278 meteorological stations and for simulations of 14 global climate models. We further define short and long deadly humid heatwaves as a period of 3–4 and ≥5 consecutive days with daily TWmax ≥35°C, respectively. Our analyses show that six stations in some subtropical regions have experienced deadly humid heat with daily TWmax ≥35°C, but only occurs in individual days. Deadly humid heatwaves increase exponentially as the global mean temperature rising. When limiting global warming within 1.5°C, long deadly humid heatwaves will not occur across the land surface, and short deadly humid heatwaves will only emerge in some drylands but not in humid areas. Under 2°C warming, 0.09% of the global land, 0.42% of the human population, and 0.56% of the global centres of crop diversity are projected to be exposed to long deadly humid heatwaves. Meanwhile, 18% of the deadly humid heatwaves lasting ≥3 consecutive days will occur in humid areas; the fractions are projected to rapidly increase in humid areas as temperature rising further. At the end of the century, the percentage of land areas and human population exposed to deadly humid heatwaves lasting ≥3 consecutive days are expected to be 76-times higher than that under 1.5°C warming level. Our finding suggests that keeping global warming within 1.5°C will significantly constrain the emergence of prolonged deadly humid heatwaves and thus reduce the risk of the human population especially outdoor agricultural workers.
中文翻译：
长期致命的潮湿热浪的出现
据报道，超过人体体温调节能力的致命湿热条件；然而，致命的湿热事件是否以及在何处连续发生在陆地表面，在很大程度上是未知的。我们为 9,278 个气象站的观测和 14 个全球气候模型的模拟计算了致命湿热的最大连续天数，定义为每日最大湿球温度 (TWmax) ≥ 35°C。我们进一步将短期和长期致命潮湿热浪分别定义为连续 3-4 天和≥5 天且每日 TWmax ≥35°C 的时期。我们的分析表明，一些亚热带地区的六个站点经历了致命的湿热，每日 TWmax ≥ 35°C，但仅在个别日子发生。随着全球平均气温上升，致命潮湿的热浪呈指数增长。当将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C 以内时，长时间的致命潮湿热浪不会出现在整个陆地表面，而短暂的致命潮湿热浪只会出现在一些干旱地区，而不会出现在潮湿地区。如果升温 2°C，预计全球 0.09% 的土地、0.42% 的人口和 0.56% 的全球作物多样性中心将暴露在长期致命的潮湿热浪中。同时，持续≥3天的致命潮湿热浪中有18%发生在潮湿地区；随着温度的进一步升高，这些分数预计会在潮湿地区迅速增加。到本世纪末，预计连续 3 天或以上暴露于致命潮湿热浪的土地面积和人口的百分比将是 1.5°C 升温水平下的 76 倍。我们的发现表明，将全球变暖控制在 1.
更新日期：2022-06-10
中文翻译：
长期致命的潮湿热浪的出现
据报道，超过人体体温调节能力的致命湿热条件；然而，致命的湿热事件是否以及在何处连续发生在陆地表面，在很大程度上是未知的。我们为 9,278 个气象站的观测和 14 个全球气候模型的模拟计算了致命湿热的最大连续天数，定义为每日最大湿球温度 (TWmax) ≥ 35°C。我们进一步将短期和长期致命潮湿热浪分别定义为连续 3-4 天和≥5 天且每日 TWmax ≥35°C 的时期。我们的分析表明，一些亚热带地区的六个站点经历了致命的湿热，每日 TWmax ≥ 35°C，但仅在个别日子发生。随着全球平均气温上升，致命潮湿的热浪呈指数增长。当将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C 以内时，长时间的致命潮湿热浪不会出现在整个陆地表面，而短暂的致命潮湿热浪只会出现在一些干旱地区，而不会出现在潮湿地区。如果升温 2°C，预计全球 0.09% 的土地、0.42% 的人口和 0.56% 的全球作物多样性中心将暴露在长期致命的潮湿热浪中。同时，持续≥3天的致命潮湿热浪中有18%发生在潮湿地区；随着温度的进一步升高，这些分数预计会在潮湿地区迅速增加。到本世纪末，预计连续 3 天或以上暴露于致命潮湿热浪的土地面积和人口的百分比将是 1.5°C 升温水平下的 76 倍。我们的发现表明，将全球变暖控制在 1.
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