This paper examines how agents’ response to macroeconomic uncertainty affects firms’ revenues, expenses, and profitability in a global sample of firms spanning 1997 to 2018. Consistent with consumers reducing purchases and managers cutting costs, I find that increases in macroeconomic uncertainty lead to both lower revenues and lower expenses. The net short-term effect on profitability is positive as the reduction in expenses exceeds the fall in revenues. This favorable profitability effect is attenuated for firms whose institutional environment restrains cost-cutting, holds for both the cash and accrual components of earnings, and is robust to instrumental variable estimation employing exogenous variation in macroeconomic uncertainty arising from natural disasters, political unrest, revolutions, and terrorist attacks.

中文翻译：

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管理层对宏观经济不确定性的反应：对企业盈利能力的影响

本文在 1997 年至 2018 年的全球公司样本中研究了代理人对宏观经济不确定性的反应如何影响公司的收入、支出和盈利能力。与消费者减少购买和经理削减成本一致，我发现宏观经济不确定性的增加导致两者较低的收入和较低的支出。对盈利能力的净短期影响是积极的，因为费用的减少超过了收入的下降。这种有利的盈利效应对于那些制度环境限制成本削减、同时持有收益的现金和应计组成部分、并且对使用自然灾害、政治动荡、革命、和恐怖袭击。