Abstract Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extreme cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by both higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of ${\$}$36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [-${\$}$7.8, ${\$}$73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.

中文翻译：

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评估气候变化对全球死亡率的影响 考虑适应成本和收益

摘要 使用 40 个国家的地方数据，我们估计了特定年龄的死亡率-温度关系，并将它们外推到今天没有数据的国家和未来的气候变化。我们发现了一种 U 型关系，极端寒冷和炎热的温度会增加死亡率，尤其是对老年人而言。至关重要的是，这种关系因更高的收入和对当地气候的适应而变得平淡。使用显示偏好方法来恢复未观察到的适应成本，我们估计，在高排放情景下，考虑到适应收益和成本，气候变化导致的全球死亡风险平均增加值约为 2100 年全球 GDP 的 3.2% . 值得注意的是，今天的寒冷地区预计将受益，而今天的贫困和炎热地区预计会造成巨大的损失。最后，我们的中心估计表明，在高排放情景下，今天额外释放一吨二氧化碳将造成 ${\$}$36.6 的死亡率相关损失，其中四分位范围内的经济计量和气候不确定性都为 [- ${\$}$7.8, ${\$}$73.0]。这些基于经验的估计比以前文献的估计高出一个数量级。