We develop a dynamic model of political competition between two groups that differ in their subjective model of the data generating process for a common outcome. One group has a simpler model than the other group as they ignore some relevant policy variables. We show that policy cycles must arise and that simple world views—which can be interpreted as populist world views—imply extreme policy choices. Periods in which those with a more complex model govern increase the specification error of the simpler world view, leading the latter to overestimate the positive impact of a few extreme policy actions. (JEL D72, D83, K42)

中文翻译：

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错误指定的政治与民粹主义的重现

我们开发了两个群体之间政治竞争的动态模型，这两个群体的数据生成过程的主观模型不同，以获得共同的结果。一组的模型比另一组更简单，因为他们忽略了一些相关的政策变量。我们表明，政策周期必须出现，简单的世界观——可以解释为民粹主义的世界观——意味着极端的政策选择。那些拥有更复杂模型的时期会增加更简单世界观的规范错误，导致后者高估一些极端政策行动的积极影响。(JEL D72, D83, K42)