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Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the United States
American Economic Review ( IF 10.5 ) Pub Date : 2022-04-01 , DOI: 10.1257/aer.20201660
Enrico Cantoni 1 , Vincent Pons 2
Affiliation  

We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a US-wide voter-level panel, 2008–2018, we examine voters who relocate across state and county lines, tracking changes in registration, turnout, and party affiliation to estimate location and individual fixed effects in a value-added model. Location explains 37 percent of the cross-state variation in turnout (to 63 percent for individual characteristics) and an only slightly smaller share of variation in party affiliation. Place effects are larger for young and White voters. (JEL D12, D72, I20, J15, L82, R23)

中文翻译:

在推动投票行为方面,背景是否超过了个人特征?美国境内搬迁的证据

我们衡量了背景与个人因素(例如,投票规则和媒体,而不是种族和教育)对选民行为的整体影响,并探索了潜在的机制。使用 2008-2018 年美国范围内的选民级别小组,我们检查跨州和县界重新安置的选民,跟踪登记、投票率和党派关系的变化,以估计增值模型中的位置和个人固定效应。位置解释了 37% 的跨州投票率差异(个人特征为 63%),而党派关系的差异仅略小一些。对于年轻和白人选民来说,地方效应更大。(JEL D12、D72、I20、J15、L82、R23)
更新日期:2022-04-01
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