We present new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole under a wide range of fertility and migration scenarios. As policy-based projections rather than forecasts, they aspire not to maximize predictive success regarding future demographic developments, but to accurately show the impact of different migration and socio-economic policy choices on population numbers. Our chief aim is to clarify those policy choices for European citizens and policymakers. We show that demographic policies have the potential to markedly increase or decrease future populations across the EU. Migration policy offers greater scope for influencing future population numbers than policies aimed at influencing national fertility rates. In countries with particularly low fertility rates or high emigration levels, egalitarian economic and family support policies have the potential to limit future population decreases to a significant extent, especially in combination. In most cases, EU nations are well placed to stabilize or slowly reduce their populations by continuing status quo policies or with moderate changes. Thus they are well placed to achieve one of the necessary conditions for creating ecologically sustainable societies.

中文翻译：

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欧盟基于政策的人口预测：一种补充方法

我们为欧盟国家和整个欧盟在各种生育率和移民情景下提供了到 2100 年的新人口预测。作为基于政策的预测而不是预测，他们不希望最大限度地提高对未来人口发展的预测成功率，而是准确地展示不同移民和社会经济政策选择对人口数量的影响。我们的主要目标是为欧洲公民和政策制定者阐明这些政策选择。我们表明，人口政策有可能显着增加或减少整个欧盟的未来人口。与旨在影响国家生育率的政策相比，移民政策为影响未来人口数量提供了更大的空间。在生育率特别低或移民水平特别高的国家，平等主义经济和家庭支持政策有可能在很大程度上限制未来人口的减少，尤其是结合起来。在大多数情况下，欧盟国家可以通过继续维持现状政策或适度改变来稳定或缓慢减少其人口。因此，它们有能力实现创建生态可持续社会的必要条件之一。