Abstract Urban agglomeration economies make cities central to theories of modern economic growth. There is historical evidence for the presence of Smithian growth and agglomeration effects in English towns c.1450-1670, but seminal assessments deny the presence of agglomeration effects and productivity gains to Early Modern English towns. This study evaluates the presence of increasing returns to scale (IRS) in aggregate urban economic outputs—the empirical signature of feedbacks between Smithian growth and agglomeration effects—among the towns of 16th century England. To do so, we test a model from settlement scaling theory against the 1524/5 Lay Subsidy returns. Analysis of these data indicates that Tudor towns exhibited IRS—a finding that is robust to alternative interpretations of the data. IRS holds even for the smallest towns in our sample, suggesting the absence of town size thresholds for the emergence of agglomeration effects. Spatial patterning of scaling residuals further suggests regional demand-side interactions with Smithian-agglomeration feedbacks. These findings suggest the presence of agglomeration effects and Smithian growth in pre-industrial English towns. This begs us to reconsider the economic performance of Early Modern English towns, and suggests that the qualitative economic dynamics of contemporary cities may be applicable to premodern settlements in general.

中文翻译：

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早期都铎时期英格兰城镇的规模报酬递增

摘要 城市群经济使城市成为现代经济增长理论的核心。有历史证据表明，在 1450-1670 年的英国城镇中存在史密斯式的增长和集聚效应，但开创性的评估否认了早期现代英国城镇存在集聚效应和生产力提高。本研究评估了 16 世纪英格兰城镇总体城市经济产出中规模报酬递增 (IRS) 的存在——史密斯增长和集聚效应之间反馈的经验特征。为此，我们针对 1524/5 Lay Subsidy 回报测试了来自结算扩展理论的模型。对这些数据的分析表明，都铎王朝的城镇表现出 IRS——这一发现对于数据的其他解释是稳健的。国税局甚至适用于我们样本中最小的城镇，表明没有出现集聚效应的城镇规模阈值。缩放残差的空间模式进一步表明区域需求侧与 Smithian 集聚反馈的相互作用。这些发现表明，在工业化前的英国城镇中存在集聚效应和史密斯式的增长。这促使我们重新考虑早期现代英国城镇的经济表现，并表明当代城市的定性经济动态可能适用于一般的前现代定居点。这些发现表明，在工业化前的英国城镇中存在集聚效应和史密斯式的增长。这促使我们重新考虑早期现代英国城镇的经济表现，并表明当代城市的定性经济动态可能适用于一般的前现代定居点。这些发现表明，在工业化前的英国城镇中存在集聚效应和史密斯式的增长。这促使我们重新考虑早期现代英国城镇的经济表现，并表明当代城市的定性经济动态可能适用于一般的前现代定居点。