Objective

To identify a cut-off value of epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) volume quantified by CT associated with a worse clinical outcome in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.

Materials and methods

In this retrospective study, sixty patients with a diagnosis of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia and a chest CT exam on admission were enrolled. Based on a total severity score (range 0–20), patients were divided into two groups: ordinary group (total severity score < 7) and severe/critical group (total severity score > 7). Clinical results and EAT volume were compared between the two groups.

Results

The severe/critical patients, compared to the ordinary ones, were older (66.83 ± 11.72 vs 58.57 ± 16.86 years; p = 0.031), had higher body mass index (27.77 ± 2.11 vs 25.07 ± 2.80 kg/m²; p < 0.001) and higher prevalence of comorbidities. EAT volume was higher in severe/critical group, compared with the ordinary group (151.40 ± 66.22 cm³ vs 92.35 ± 44.46 cm³, p < 0.001). In severe/critical group, 19 (73%) patients were admitted in intensive care unit (ICU), compared with 6 (20%) patients in the ordinary group (p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is equal to 0.781 (p < 0.001) (95% CI: 0.662–0.900). The cut-off found, in correspondence with the highest value of the Youden Index, is 97 cm³: the sensitivity is equal to 83.3%, while the specificity is equal to 70% for predicting a worse outcome. The risk (odds ratio) of belonging to the severe/critical group in this population due to EAT ≥ 97 cm³ is 11.667 (95% CI: 3.384–40.220; p < 0.001).

Conclusion

An EAT volume of 97 cm³ has good sensitivity and specificity to predict a greater extent of pulmonary involvement and therefore a worse clinical outcome in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.