This article provides a systematic examination of the role of security considerations in shaping mass preferences over international economic exchange. The authors employ multiple survey experiments conducted in the United States and India, along with observational and case study evidence, to investigate how geopolitics affects voters’ views of international trade. Their research shows that respondents consistently—and by large margins—prefer trading with allies over adversaries. Negative prior beliefs about adversaries, amplified by concerns that trade will bolster the partner's military, account for this preference. Yet the authors also find that a significant proportion of the public believes that trade can lead to peace and that the peace-inducing aspects of trade can cause voters to overcome their aversion to trade with adversaries. This article helps explain when and why governments constrained by public opinion pursue economic cooperation in the shadow of conflict.

本文系统地考察了安全考虑在塑造大众对国际经济交换的偏好中的作用。作者利用在美国和印度进行的多项调查实验以及观察和案例研究证据来调查地缘政治如何影响选民对国际贸易的看法。他们的研究表明，受访者始终——而且在很大程度上——更喜欢与盟友进行交易而不是与对手进行交易。对对手的负面先验信念，以及对贸易将增强伙伴军队的担忧放大，是这种偏好的原因。然而，作者还发现，很大一部分公众认为贸易可以带来和平，贸易的和平诱导方面可以使选民克服他们对与对手进行贸易的厌恶。