Abstract

Based on the life course perspective, this work adopts a sequence analysis approach to examine internal migrant trajectories and their interdependencies with life course factors. The analyses are based on longitudinal data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands. The internal migrant trajectories of Dutch cohorts born between 1850 and 1922 are followed from birth until age fifty. Two sequence analysis methods are applied: (1) main migration patterns are described using cluster analysis, and explained by their associations with socio-demographic covariates using logit models; (2) migrant trajectory variations are investigated using a dissimilarity tree method with a discrepancy analysis. Seven distinct migrant trajectory patterns are derived from the cluster analysis. Early-life social status, place and region of origin are differently associated to these typologies, and an increased stability of specific trajectories over time is suggested. Fifteen homogeneous migrant trajectories are identified in the dissimilarity tree. The discrepancy between groups is explained by intricate interactions between birth cohort, social and place origin, as well as family formation. The cluster analysis suggests a stable regime of internal migration patterns over time. The dissimilarity tree method contributes to detect interdependencies of migrant trajectories, highlighting socio-economic, local and regional differences at birth.

摘要

本工作基于生命历程的视角，采用序列分析的方法来考察内部移民轨迹及其与生命历程因素的相互依存关系。分析基于荷兰历史样本的纵向数据。1850 年至 1922 年间出生的荷兰同伙的内部移民轨迹从出生一直持续到 50 岁。应用了两种序列分析方法：（1）使用聚类分析描述主要迁移模式，并使用 logit 模型通过它们与社会人口协变量的关联来解释；(2) 使用差异树方法和差异分析研究移民轨迹变化。七种不同的移民轨迹模式是从聚类分析中得出的。早年社会地位，原产地和地区与这些类型的相关性不同，并且建议随着时间的推移特定轨迹的稳定性增加。在相异树中确定了 15 个同质迁移轨迹。群体之间的差异可以通过出生队列、社会和地方起源以及家庭形成之间复杂的相互作用来解释。聚类分析表明，随着时间的推移，内部迁移模式处于稳定状态。差异树方法有助于检测移民轨迹的相互依赖关系，突出出生时的社会经济、地方和区域差异。群体之间的差异可以通过出生队列、社会和地方起源以及家庭形成之间复杂的相互作用来解释。聚类分析表明，随着时间的推移，内部迁移模式处于稳定状态。差异树方法有助于检测移民轨迹的相互依赖关系，突出出生时的社会经济、地方和区域差异。群体之间的差异可以通过出生队列、社会和地方起源以及家庭形成之间复杂的相互作用来解释。聚类分析表明，随着时间的推移，内部迁移模式处于稳定状态。差异树方法有助于检测移民轨迹的相互依赖关系，突出出生时的社会经济、地方和区域差异。