CORDEX-SEA 区域气候模型中的日降水量比它们在东南亚的强迫全球气候模型更强,International Journal of Climatology

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CORDEX-SEA 区域气候模型中的日降水量比它们在东南亚的强迫全球气候模型更强
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2022-03-27 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7619
Phuong‐Loan Nguyen _{1,

2} , Margot Bador _{1,

2} , Lisa V. Alexander _{1,

2} , Todd P. Lane _{3,

4} , Thanh Ngo‐Duc ₅

Affiliation

区域气候模型 (RCM) 准确模拟当前气候的能力对于东南亚 (SEA) 的影响评估越来越重要，东南亚被确定为世界上最易受气候变化影响的地区之一。在这项研究中，我们评估了来自协调区域气候降尺度实验-SEA (CORDEX-SEA) 的一组区域高分辨率模拟在模拟该地区降雨时的性能。将 1982-2005 年每日降水和陆地降水分布的季节性平均气候模拟与来自不同来源（即基于实地和基于卫星）的观测结果进行了比较。我们还评估了 RCM 中的降水分布在多大程度上比其相关的强迫全球气候模型 (GCM) 更接近观测值。SEA降水的观测估计具有很大的不确定性，使模型评估变得复杂。尽管存在这些困难，我们的结果强调 RCM 可以重现季节性降雨空间分布的一些复杂性，但通常比 GCM 具有更大的湿偏差。对于 RCM 显着高估降雨强度的极端情况尤其如此。有一些降水分位数和网格点，其中 RCM 与观测相比，偏差减少有限，但在所有模拟中没有一致性，而且 RCM 通常比它们的强迫 GCM 更远离观测。我们发现，与相关的强迫 GCM 相比，CORDEX-SEA 上 RCM 的更大强度首先与当地和大规模来源的水分供应增加有关。其次，在 RCM 中发现整个地区的对流降水普遍增加。我们的研究结果表明，模型模拟该地区降水的能力更多地依赖于 RCM 设置本身（例如，参数化方案），而不是其强制 GCM。在评估未来预测的 RCM 降水模拟的可靠性时，应考虑到这一点。而不是其强制 GCM。在评估未来预测的 RCM 降水模拟的可靠性时，应考虑到这一点。而不是其强制 GCM。在评估未来预测的 RCM 降水模拟的可靠性时，应考虑到这一点。

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More intense daily precipitation in CORDEX-SEA regional climate models than their forcing global climate models over Southeast Asia

The ability of regional climate models (RCMs) to accurately simulate the current climate is increasingly important for impact assessments over Southeast Asia (SEA), identified as one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a set of regional high-resolution simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-SEA (CORDEX-SEA) in simulating rainfall over the region. Simulations of the 1982–2005 seasonal mean climatology of daily precipitation and precipitation distribution over land are compared to observations from different sources (i.e., in situ-based and satellite-based). We also evaluate to what extent the precipitation distribution in RCMs is closer to observations than their associated forcing global climate models (GCMs). Observational estimates of precipitation over SEA have large uncertainties, making the model evaluations complicated. Despite these difficulties, our results highlight that RCMs can reproduce some complexities in the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall but generally have a larger wet bias than GCMs. This is particularly true for the extremes in which RCMs show a large overestimation of rainfall intensity. There are some precipitation quantiles and grid points in which RCMs show limited reductions in biases compared to observations, but there is no consistency across all simulations and RCMs are generally further away from observations than their forcing GCMs. We find that greater intensity in RCMs over CORDEX-SEA compared to their associated forcing GCMs is firstly associated with the increased supply of moisture from both local and large-scale sources. Second, a widespread increase in convective precipitation is found across the region in RCMs. Our findings suggest that a model's ability to simulate precipitation over the region relies more on the RCM setup itself (e.g., parameterization scheme), rather than its forcing GCM. This should be considered when assessing the reliability of RCM precipitation simulations for future projections.

更新日期：2022-03-27

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