Risk-based sentencing regimes use an offender’s statistical likelihood of returning to crime in the future to determine the amount of time he or she spends in prison. Many criminal justice reformers see this as a fair and efficient way to shrink the size of the incarcerated population, while minimizing sacrifices to public safety. But risk-based sentencing is indefensible even (and perhaps especially) by the lights of the theory that supposedly justifies it. Instead of trying to cut time in prison for those who are least likely to reoffend, officials should focus sentencing reform on the least advantaged who tend to be the most likely to reoffend.

中文翻译：

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基于风险的量刑和惩罚原则

基于风险的量刑制度使用罪犯未来重返犯罪的统计可能性来确定他或她在监狱中度过的时间。许多刑事司法改革者认为这是缩小被监禁人口规模，同时最大限度地减少对公共安全的牺牲的一种公平有效的方式。但是基于风险的量刑是站不住脚的，即使（也许尤其是）从理论上证明它是合理的。官员们不应试图为那些最不可能再犯罪的人缩短刑期，而应将量刑改革重点放在最有可能再次犯罪的弱势群体上。