We study labor market returns to vocational versus general secondary education using a regression discontinuity design created by the centralized admissions process in Finland. Admission to the vocational track increases initial annual income, and this benefit persists at least through the mid-thirties, and present discount value calculations suggest that it is unlikely that life cycle returns will turn negative through retirement. Moreover, admission to the vocational track does not increase the likelihood of working in jobs at risk of replacement by automation or offshoring. Consistent with comparative advantage, we observe larger returns for people who express a preference for vocational education. (JEL D15, I21, I26, J24, J31, O33)

中文翻译：

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劳动力市场重返职业中等教育

我们使用芬兰集中招生过程创建的回归不连续设计来研究职业与普通中等教育的劳动力市场回报。进入职业轨道会增加初始年收入，而且这种好处至少会持续到 30 年代中期，而目前的折现值计算表明，生命周期回报不太可能在退休后变为负数。此外，进入职业轨道不会增加从事有被自动化或离岸外包风险替代的工作的可能性。与比较优势一致，我们观察到对职业教育表示偏好的人的回报更大。(JEL D15、I21、I26、J24、J31、O33)