This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980–1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential census data, I estimate difference-in-difference regressions that exploit variation across counties in recession severity and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. For individuals age 0–10 in 1979, a 10 percent decrease in earnings per capita in their county of birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 15 percent and earnings in adulthood by 5 percent. Simple calculations suggest that in aggregate, the 1980–1982 recession led to 1.3–2.8 million fewer college graduates and $66–$139 billion less earned income per year. (JEL E32, I21, I26, J24, J31)

中文翻译：

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经济衰退对教育和收入的长期影响

本文考察了 1980-1982 年经济衰退对教育和收入的长期影响。使用机密的人口普查数据，我估计了差异回归，该回归利用了经济衰退严重程度各县和经济衰退时年龄跨群体的差异。对于 1979 年 0 至 10 岁的个人，其出生县的人均收入减少 10% 会使四年制大学学位的获得减少 15%，成年后的收入减少 5%。简单的计算表明，总的来说，1980-1982 年的经济衰退导致大学毕业生减少 1.3-280 万，每年的收入减少 66-1390 亿美元。(JEL E32、I21、I26、J24、J31)