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Cell Phone Access and Election Fraud: Evidence from a Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design in Afghanistan
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics ( IF 5.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-29 , DOI: 10.1257/app.20190443 Robert M. Gonzalez 1
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics ( IF 5.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-29 , DOI: 10.1257/app.20190443 Robert M. Gonzalez 1
Affiliation
This paper examines the impact of cell phone access on election fraud. I combine cell phone coverage maps with the location of polling centers during the 2009 Afghan presidential election to pinpoint which centers were exposed to coverage. Results from a spatial regression discontinuity design along the two-dimensional coverage boundary suggest that coverage deters corrupt behavior. Polling centers just inside coverage report a drop in the share of fraudulent votes of 4 percentage points, while the likelihood of a fraudulent station decreases by 8 percentage points. Analyses of the effect of coverage on citizen participation in election monitoring, election-related insurgent violence, and the tribal composition of villages suggest that the observed declines in fraud are likely attributed to cell phone access strengthening social monitoring capacity. (JEL D72, K16, K42, O17, Z13)
中文翻译:
手机访问和选举欺诈:来自阿富汗空间回归不连续设计的证据
本文研究了手机访问对选举舞弊的影响。我将手机覆盖地图与 2009 年阿富汗总统大选期间的投票中心位置结合起来,以确定哪些中心受到覆盖。沿二维覆盖边界的空间回归不连续设计的结果表明,覆盖阻止了腐败行为。覆盖范围内的投票中心报告说,欺诈选票的比例下降了 4 个百分点,而欺诈站的可能性下降了 8 个百分点。分析报道对公民参与选举监督、与选举有关的叛乱暴力的影响,村庄的部落构成表明,观察到的欺诈行为下降可能归因于手机使用增强了社会监测能力。(JEL D72、K16、K42、O17、Z13)
更新日期:2021-03-29
中文翻译:
手机访问和选举欺诈:来自阿富汗空间回归不连续设计的证据
本文研究了手机访问对选举舞弊的影响。我将手机覆盖地图与 2009 年阿富汗总统大选期间的投票中心位置结合起来,以确定哪些中心受到覆盖。沿二维覆盖边界的空间回归不连续设计的结果表明,覆盖阻止了腐败行为。覆盖范围内的投票中心报告说,欺诈选票的比例下降了 4 个百分点,而欺诈站的可能性下降了 8 个百分点。分析报道对公民参与选举监督、与选举有关的叛乱暴力的影响,村庄的部落构成表明,观察到的欺诈行为下降可能归因于手机使用增强了社会监测能力。(JEL D72、K16、K42、O17、Z13)