We estimate the impact of the Social Security Annual Earnings Test (AET) on older workers’ employment. The AET reduces social security claimants’ current benefits in proportion to their earnings in excess of an exempt amount. Using a regression kink design and Social Security Administration data, we document that the discontinuous change in the benefit reduction rate at the exempt amount causes a corresponding change in the slope of the employment rate, suggesting that the extensive margin of labor supply is more sensitive to this policy than commonly thought. We develop a model and method that allow us to translate the behavioral responses into a lower bound estimate of 0.49 for the extensive margin elasticity, which implies more than a 1 percentage point increase in work in the absence of the AET. (JEL H55, J14, J22, J26, J31)

中文翻译：

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使用非线性预算集来估计广泛的保证金响应：来自收益测试的方法和证据

我们估计了社会保障年度收入测试 (AET) 对老年工人就业的影响。AET 会根据超过免税金额的收入按比例减少社会保障索赔人的当前福利。使用回归扭结设计和社会保障局数据，我们记录了免税额下福利减少率的不连续变化导致就业率斜率的相应变化，这表明劳动力供给的粗放边际对这个政策比通常想象的要好。我们开发了一个模型和方法，允许我们将行为反应转化为广泛边际弹性的下限估计 0.49，这意味着在没有 AET 的情况下工作增加了 1 个百分点以上。(JEL H55、J14、J22、J26、J31)