Using a 1993 Dutch policy reform and a regression discontinuity design, we find children of parents whose disability insurance (DI) eligibility was reduced are 11 percent less likely to participate in DI themselves, do not alter their use of other government programs, and earn 2 percent more as adults. The reduced transfers and increased taxes of children account for 40 percent of the fiscal savings relative to parents in present discounted value terms. Moreover, children of treated parents complete more schooling, have a lower probability of serious criminal arrests and incarceration, and take fewer mental health drugs as adults. (JEL H53, I12, I38, J14)

中文翻译：

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残疾保险的代际溢出

使用 1993 年的荷兰政策改革和回归不连续设计，我们发现残疾保险 (DI) 资格被降低的父母的孩子自己参与 DI 的可能性降低了 11%，不改变他们对其他政府计划的使用，并获得 2成年后增加百分之几。以目前的折现价值计算，相对于父母而言，减少的转移支付和增加的税收占了 40% 的财政储蓄。此外，接受治疗的父母的孩子完成的学业更多，被严重刑事逮捕和监禁的可能性更低，成年后服用的精神健康药物也更少。(JEL H53, I12, I38, J14)