This paper focuses on the price of nails since 1695 and the proximate source of changes in those prices. Why nails? They are a basic manufactured product whose form and quality have changed relatively little over the last three centuries, yet the process for producing them has changed dramatically. Accordingly, nails provide a useful prism through which to examine a wide range of economic and technological developments that touch on multiple areas of both micro- and macroeconomics. Several conclusions emerge. First, from the late 1700s to the mid-twentieth century, real nail prices fell by a factor of about 10 relative to overall consumer prices. These declines had important effects on downstream industries, most notably construction. Second, while declining materials prices contribute to reductions in nail prices, the largest proximate source of the decline during this period was multifactor productivity growth in nail manufacturing, highlighting the role of the specialization of labor and reorganization of production processes. Third, the share of nails in GDP dropped back from 0.4 percent of GDP in 1810—comparable to today’s share of household purchases of personal computers—to a de minimis share more recently; accordingly, nails played a bigger role in American life in that earlier period. Finally, real nail prices have increased since the mid-twentieth century, reflecting in part an upturn in materials prices and a shift toward specialty nails in the wake of import competition, though the introduction of nail guns partly offset these increases for the price of installed nails.

中文翻译：

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自 1695 年以来的钉子价格：进入经济变革的窗口

本文重点关注自 1695 年以来的钉子价格以及这些价格变化的大致来源。为什么是指甲？它们是一种基本的制成品，其形式和质量在过去三个世纪中变化相对较小，但生产它们的过程却发生了巨大变化。因此，钉子提供了一个有用的棱镜，通过它可以检查涉及微观和宏观经济学多个领域的广泛的经济和技术发展。出现了几个结论。首先，从 1700 年代后期到 20 世纪中叶，实际指甲价格相对于整体消费价格下降了约 10 倍。这些下降对下游行业产生了重要影响，尤其是建筑业。其次，虽然材料价格下降导致钉子价格下降，这一时期下降的最大直接原因是钉子制造业的多因素生产率增长，突出了劳动力专业化和生产流程重组的作用。第三，钉子在 GDP 中的份额从 1810 年占 GDP 的 0.4%（与今天家庭购买个人电脑的份额相比）下降到最近的微量份额；因此，指甲在早期的美国人生活中发挥了更大的作用。最后，自 20 世纪中叶以来，实际钉子价格有所上涨，部分反映了材料价格的回升以及在进口竞争之后向特种钉子的转变，尽管射钉枪的引入部分抵消了安装价格的上涨指甲。