We describe the structure and use of epidemiology models of disease transmission, with an emphasis on the susceptible/infected/recovered (SIR) model. We discuss high-profile forecasts of cases and deaths that have been based on these models, what went wrong with the early forecasts, and how they have adapted to the current COVID pandemic. We also offer three distinct areas where economists would be well positioned to contribute to or inform this epidemiology literature: modeling heterogeneity of susceptible populations in various dimensions, accommodating endogeneity of the parameters governing disease spread, and helping to understand the importance of political economy issues in disease suppression.

中文翻译：

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经济学家传染病流行病学模型指南

我们描述了疾病传播的流行病学模型的结构和使用，重点是易感/感染/康复 (SIR) 模型。我们讨论了基于这些模型的高调病例和死亡预测、早期预测出了什么问题，以及它们如何适应当前的 COVID 大流行。我们还提供了三个不同的领域，经济学家可以很好地为这些流行病学文献做出贡献或提供信息：在各个方面对易感人群的异质性进行建模，适应控制疾病传播的参数的内生性，以及帮助理解政治经济问题的重要性。疾病抑制。