This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects declines across many groups of women, including teens, Hispanic women, and college-educated white women. The Great Recession contributed to the decline in the early part of this period, but we are unable to identify any other economic, policy, or social factor that has changed since 2007 that is responsible for much of the decline beyond that. Mechanically, the falling birth rate can be attributed to changes in birth patterns across recent cohorts of women moving through childbearing age. We conjecture that the “shifting priorities” of more recent cohorts, reflecting changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and parenting norms, may be responsible. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.

中文翻译：

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自大衰退以来美国出生率下降之谜

本文记录了 2007 年至 2020 年间美国出生率急剧下降的一系列事实，并探讨了可能的解释。出生率的总体下降反映了许多女性群体的下降，包括青少年、西班牙裔女性和受过大学教育的白人女性。大衰退导致了这一时期早期的衰退，但我们无法确定自 2007 年以来发生变化的任何其他经济、政策或社会因素是造成除此之外的大部分衰退的原因。从机制上讲，出生率下降可归因于最近生育年龄组的女性生育模式的变化。我们推测，最近一批人的“优先事项不断变化”，反映了生孩子的偏好、对生活的渴望、和育儿规范，可能是负责任的。最后，我们简要讨论了出生率下降的社会后果以及美国可能会采取的措施。