What explains the central role of the dollar in world trade? Will the US currency retain its dominant status in the future? This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium framework with endogenous currency choice that can address these questions. Complementarities in price setting and input-output linkages across firms generate complementarities in currency choice making exporters coordinate on the same currency of invoicing. The dollar is more likely to play this role because of the large size of the US economy, a widespread peg to the dollar, and the history dependence in currency choice. Calibrated using the world input-output tables and exchange rate moments, the model can successfully replicate the key empirical facts about the use of currencies at the global level, across countries, and over time. According to the counterfactual analysis, the peg to the dollar in other economies ensures that the US currency is unlikely to lose its global status because of the falling US share in the world economy, but can be replaced by the renminbi in case of a negative shock in the US economy. If the peg is abandoned, the world is likely to move to a new equilibrium with multiple regional currencies. (JEL D21, E31, E42, F14, F31, F33)

中文翻译：

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国际价格体系的均衡模型

什么解释了美元在世界贸易中的核心作用？未来美元能否保持主导地位？本文开发了一个具有内生货币选择的定量一般均衡框架，可以解决这些问题。公司之间价格设定和投入产出联系的互补性产生了货币选择的互补性，使出口商在相同的计价货币上进行协调。由于美国经济规模庞大、与美元挂钩的普遍性以及货币选择的历史依赖性，美元更有可能发挥这一作用。该模型使用世界投入产出表和汇率矩进行校准，可以成功地复制有关在全球范围内、跨国家和长期使用货币的关键经验事实。根据反事实分析，其他经济体与美元挂钩确保了美元不太可能因为美国在世界经济中的份额下降而失去其全球地位，但在出现负面冲击时可以被人民币取代在美国经济中。如果放弃挂钩，世界很可能会转向多种区域货币的新平衡。(JEL D21, E31, E42, F14, F31, F33)