This paper shows that racial composition shocks during the Great Migration (1940–1970) reduced the gains from growing up in the northern United States for Black families and can explain 27 percent of the region’s racial upward mobility gap today. I identify northern Black share increases by interacting pre-1940 Black migrants’ location choices with predicted southern county out-migration. Locational changes, not negative selection of families, explain lower upward mobility, with persistent segregation and increased crime and policing as plausible mechanisms. The case of the Great Migration provides a more nuanced view of moving to opportunity when destination reactions are taken into account. (JEL H75, H76, J15, J62, K42, N32, R23)

中文翻译：

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你能转向机会吗？大迁徙的证据

本文表明，大迁徙（1940-1970 年）期间的种族构成冲击减少了黑人家庭在美国北部长大的收益，并且可以解释当今该地区 27% 的种族向上流动差距。我通过将 1940 年之前的黑人移民的位置选择与预测的南部县向外迁移相互作用来确定北部黑人份额的增加。地点的变化，而不是对家庭的消极选择，解释了向上流动性降低，持续的隔离和增加的犯罪和警务是合理的机制。当考虑到目的地反应时，大迁徙的案例提供了一个更细致入微的关于转向机会的观点。(JEL H75、H76、J15、J62、K42、N32、R23)