Abstract

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indexes for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and was small even during the early 1980s. We estimate only a modest decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since the 1980s. We use a multiregion model to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips curve from our regional estimates. Applying our estimates to recent unemployment dynamics yields essentially no missing disinflation or missing reinflation over the past few business cycles. Our results imply that the sharp drop in core inflation in the early 1980s was mostly due to shifting expectations about long-run monetary policy as opposed to a steep Phillips curve, and the greater stability of inflation between 1990 and 2020 is mostly due to long-run inflation expectations becoming more firmly anchored.

中文翻译：

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菲利普斯曲线的斜率：来自美国各州的证据

摘要

我们使用可追溯到 1978 年的新构建的不可贸易商品的州级价格指数来估计美国各州横截面的菲利普斯曲线的斜率。我们的估计表明，菲利普斯曲线的斜率很小，即使在 1980 年代初期也很小. 我们估计自 1980 年代以来菲利普斯曲线的斜率仅适度下降。我们使用多区域模型从我们的区域估计中推断总体菲利普斯曲线的斜率。将我们的估计应用到最近的失业动态中，在过去的几个商业周期中基本上不会错过通货紧缩或再通货膨胀。我们的结果表明，1980 年代初核心通胀的急剧下降主要是由于对长期货币政策的预期转变，而不是陡峭的菲利普斯曲线，