In this paper we explore the fiscal sustainability of US state and local government pension plans. Specifically, we examine whether, under current benefit and funding policies, state and local pension plans will ever become insolvent and if so, when. We then examine the fiscal cost of stabilizing pension debt as a share of the economy and examine the cost associated with delaying such stabilization into the future. We find that, despite the projected increase in the ratio of beneficiaries to workers as a result of population aging, state and local government pension benefit payments as a share of the economy are currently near their peak and will eventually decline significantly. This previously undocumented pattern reflects the significant reforms enacted by many plans which lower benefits for new hires and cost-of-living adjustments often set beneath the expected pace of inflation. Under low or moderate asset return assumptions, we find that few plans are likely to exhaust their assets over the next few decades. Nonetheless, under these asset returns, plans are currently not sustainable as pension debt is set to rise indefinitely; plans will therefore need to take action to reach sustainability. But the required fiscal adjustments are generally moderate in size and in all cases are substantially lower than the adjustments required under the typical full prefunding benchmark. We also find generally modest returns, if any, to starting this stabilization process now versus a decade in the future. Of course, there is significant heterogeneity, with some plans requiring very large increases to stabilize their pension debt.

在本文中，我们探讨了美国州和地方政府养老金计划的财政可持续性。具体来说，我们研究在当前的福利和资金政策下，州和地方养老金计划是否会破产，如果会，何时破产。然后，我们研究了稳定养老金债务占经济份额的财政成本，并研究了将这种稳定延迟到未来的相关成本。我们发现，尽管由于人口老龄化，受益人与工人的比例预计会增加，但州和地方政府的养老金福利支付占经济的比例目前接近峰值，最终将显着下降。这种先前未记录的模式反映了许多计划实施的重大改革，这些计划降低了新员工的福利和生活成本调整通常低于预期的通货膨胀速度。在低或中等资产回报率假设下，我们发现很少有计划可能在未来几十年内耗尽其资产。尽管如此，在这些资产回报下，计划目前是不可持续的，因为养老金债务将无限期增加；因此，计划将需要采取行动以实现可持续性。但所需的财政调整通常规模适中，并且在所有情况下都大大低于典型的全额预筹资金基准下所需的调整。我们还发现，从现在开始这个稳定过程而不是在未来十年内，通常会有适度的回报（如果有的话）。当然，