Abstract

Because judges are expected to decide cases through the impartial application of existing law, they are often reluctant to admit that they must make law in hard cases. Many judges claim that such hard cases are rare, constituting roughly 10 percent of cases. In stark contrast, economic models of the selection of disputes for litigation predict that easy cases will settle, so that only hard cases would remain in trial and appellate courts. Empirical indicators, such as dissent rates or voting differences between Democratic and Republican appointees, have yielded muddled conclusions about the proportion of easy and hard cases in appellate courts. In fact, none of these crude statistics relate directly to the proportion of easy cases. This article develops a new approach for empirically analyzing the proportion of easy cases. Although the easiness and hardness of cases are subjective, it is possible to estimate feasible combinations of the proportion of hard cases and clear errors. This approach relies only on the basic premise that reasonable judges should not disagree in easy cases. The article then illustrates this approach using two datasets of appeals. An analysis of asylum appeals in the 9th Circuit finds widespread disagreement, implying high proportions of hard cases, clear errors, or both. By contrast, voting data from labor and environmental cases in the D.C. Circuit is consistent with the claim that 90 percent of cases are easy and 1 percent of decisions are clear errors.

中文翻译：

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有多少案件是容易的？

摘要

由于法官被期望通过公正地适用现行法律来裁决案件，他们往往不愿意承认他们必须在疑难案件中制定法律。许多法官声称此类疑难案件很少见，约占案件的 10%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，选择诉讼争议的经济模型预测，简单的案件将得到解决，因此只有困难的案件将留在审判和上诉法院。经验指标，例如反对率或民主党和共和党任命者之间的投票差异，已经对上诉法院中容易和困难案件的比例得出了混乱的结论。事实上，这些粗略的统计数据都没有直接关系到简单案件的比例。本文开发了一种新方法，用于实证分析简单案例的比例。尽管案件的难易程度是主观的，但可以估计出困难案件的比例和明显错误的可行组合。这种方法仅依赖于一个基本前提，即理性的法官在简单的案件中不应有不同意见。然后，本文使用两个上诉数据集说明了这种方法。对第 9 巡回法院的庇护上诉的分析发现存在广泛的分歧，这意味着疑难案件的比例很高，有明显的错误，或两者兼而有之。相比之下，来自 DC 巡回法院的劳工和环境案件的投票数据与 90% 的案件很容易且 1% 的决定明显错误的说法一致。这种方法仅依赖于一个基本前提，即理性的法官在简单的案件中不应有不同意见。然后，本文使用两个上诉数据集说明了这种方法。对第 9 巡回法院的庇护上诉的分析发现存在广泛的分歧，这意味着疑难案件的比例很高，有明显的错误，或两者兼而有之。相比之下，来自 DC 巡回法院的劳工和环境案件的投票数据与 90% 的案件很容易且 1% 的决定明显错误的说法一致。这种方法仅依赖于一个基本前提，即理性的法官在简单的案件中不应有不同意见。然后，本文使用两个上诉数据集说明了这种方法。对第 9 巡回法院的庇护上诉的分析发现存在广泛的分歧，这意味着疑难案件的比例很高，有明显的错误，或两者兼而有之。相比之下，来自 DC 巡回法院的劳工和环境案件的投票数据与 90% 的案件很容易且 1% 的决定明显错误的说法一致。