Current Climate Change Reports ( IF 9.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-12-27 , DOI: 10.1007/s40641-021-00178-y Julia Pongratz 1, 2 , Clemens Schwingshackl 1 , Selma Bultan 1 , Wolfgang Obermeier 1 , Felix Havermann 1 , Suqi Guo 1
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Purpose of Review
As demand for food and fiber, but also for negative emissions, brings most of the Earth’s land surface under management, we aim to consolidate the scientific progress of recent years on the climatic effects of global land use change, including land management, and related land cover changes (LULCC).
Recent Findings
We review the methodological advances in both modeling and observations to capture biogeochemical and biogeophysical LULCC effects and summarize the knowledge on underlying mechanisms and on the strength of their effects. Recent studies have raised or resolved several important questions related to LULCC: How can we derive CO2 fluxes related to LULCC from satellites? Why are uncertainties in LULCC-related GHG fluxes so large? How can we explain that estimates of afforestation/reforestation potentials diverge by an order of magnitude? Can we reconcile the seemingly contradicting results of models and observations concerning the cooling effect of high-latitude deforestation?
Summary
Major progress has been achieved in understanding the complementarity of modeling, observations, and inventories for estimating the impacts of various LULCC practices on carbon, energy, and water fluxes. Emerging fields are the operationalization of the recently achieved integration of approaches, such as a full greenhouse gas balance of LULCC, mapping of emissions from global models to country-reported emissions data, or model evaluation against local biogeophysical observations. Fundamental challenges remain, however, e.g., in separating anthropogenic from natural land use dynamics and accurately quantifying the first. Recent progress has laid the foundation for future research to integrate the local to global scales at which the various effects act, to create co-benefits between global mitigation, including land-based carbon dioxide removal, and changes in local climate for effective adaptation strategies.
中文翻译：
土地利用对气候的影响：现状、最新进展和新兴主题
审查目的
由于对食品和纤维的需求以及负排放使地球的大部分陆地表面受到管理，我们的目标是巩固近年来在全球土地利用变化的气候影响方面取得的科学进展，包括土地管理和相关土地封面变更 (LULCC)。
最近的发现
我们回顾了建模和观测方面的方法进展，以捕捉生物地球化学和生物地球物理 LULCC 效应，并总结了有关潜在机制及其影响强度的知识。最近的研究提出或解决了与 LULCC 相关的几个重要问题：我们如何从卫星获得与 LULCC 相关的CO 2通量？为什么与 LULCC 相关的温室气体通量的不确定性如此之大？我们如何解释造林/再造林潜力的估计存在一个数量级的差异？我们能否调和关于高纬度森林砍伐的降温效应的模型和观测结果看似矛盾的结果？
概括
在理解模型、观测和清单的互补性以估计各种 LULCC 实践对碳、能量和水通量的影响方面已经取得了重大进展。新兴领域是最近实现的各种方法整合的实施，例如 LULCC 的完整温室气体平衡、将全球模型的排放量映射到国家报告的排放数据，或根据当地生物地球物理观测进行模型评估。然而，基本挑战仍然存在，例如，将人为与自然土地利用动态分开并准确量化前者。最近的进展为未来的研究奠定了基础，以整合各种影响作用的地方和全球尺度，在全球缓解（包括陆基二氧化碳清除）和当地气候变化之间创造协同效益，以制定有效的适应策略。
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