尽管有大量关于稳定国家气候变化的研究，但来自包括索马里在内的冲突多发地区的气候政策观点是有限的。值得注意的是，环境退化是一个令人担忧的问题，加剧了索马里对气候变化的脆弱性。为此，本研究通过采用 1985 年至 2017 年的非线性自回归分布滞后模型 (NARDL) 和因果技术，调查了能源和经济增长对索马里环境退化的不对称影响。我们发现变量之间存在不对称的长期协整，而能源消耗和经济增长不对称地影响环境退化。此外，因果推论揭示了从环境污染到能源消耗正变化的单向因果关系。此外，观察到人口增长和经济增长负变化之间存在双向因果关系。单向因果关系得到证实：从经济增长的正向冲击到人口增长——从经济增长的负向变化到能源消费的负向冲击——从经济增长的正向变化到能源消费的正向冲击——以及从能源的负向变化消费对人口增长。这需要实施清洁能源投资和现代环境战略，包括良好的耕作方法和改进的牧场政策。这些政策的采用将改善环境质量和持续的经济发展。从经济增长的正向冲击到人口增长——从经济增长的负向变化到能源消费的负向冲击——从经济增长的正向变化到能源消费的正向冲击——从能源消费的负向变化到人口增长。这需要实施清洁能源投资和现代环境战略，包括良好的耕作方法和改进的牧场政策。这些政策的采用将改善环境质量和持续的经济发展。从经济增长的正向冲击到人口增长——从经济增长的负向变化到能源消费的负向冲击——从经济增长的正向变化到能源消费的正向冲击——从能源消费的负向变化到人口增长。这需要实施清洁能源投资和现代环境战略，包括良好的耕作方法和改进的牧场政策。这些政策的采用将改善环境质量和持续的经济发展。这需要实施清洁能源投资和现代环境战略，包括良好的耕作方法和改进的牧场政策。这些政策的采用将改善环境质量和持续的经济发展。这需要实施清洁能源投资和现代环境战略，包括良好的耕作方法和改进的牧场政策。这些政策的采用将改善环境质量和持续的经济发展。
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Asymmetric impact of energy utilization and economic development on environmental degradation in Somalia
While there are enormous studies on climate change in stable countries, climate policy perspectives from conflict-prone regions including Somalia are limited. It is noteworthy that environmental degradation is an alarming issue that fuels the vulnerability of Somalia to climate change. To this end, this study investigates the asymmetric impact of energy and economic growth on environmental degradation in Somalia—by employing nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) and causal techniques from 1985 to 2017. We find asymmetric long-term cointegration among the variables, whereas energy consumption and economic growth asymmetrically affect environmental degradation. Besides, the causal inferences reveal unidirectional causality from environmental pollution to positive change in energy consumption. Additionally, a bidirectional causality is observed between population growth and negative change in economic growth. A unidirectional causality is confirmed: from positive shock in economic growth to population growth—from a negative change in economic growth to negative shock in energy consumption—from positive change in economic growth to positive shock in energy consumption—and from a negative change in energy consumption to population growth. This calls for the implementation of clean energy investment and modern environmental strategies including good farming methods and improved grazing land policies. The adoption of these policies will improve both environmental quality and sustained economic development.
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