We analyse the hypothesis that variations in the income elasticities of the demand for exports and imports are influenced by the difference between the actual and industrial equilibrium levels of real effective exchange rates. The industrial equilibrium is defined as the exchange rate level that equalises real unit labour costs between local producers of manufactured goods and their trading partners. To test our hypothesis, based on data between 1995 and 2014 from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), a sample of 43 countries was built. First, the actual and the industrial equilibrium real effective exchange rates were calculated; then, the income elasticities were estimated for each country during this period. A dynamic panel data model was adopted to estimate the relationship between these elasticities and the differences between those exchange rates. The results suggest that the magnitude of these differences modifies the income elasticities of trade, potentially contributing to structural change.

中文翻译：

---

汇率与结构变化的关系：基于贸易收入弹性的方法

我们分析了这样一个假设，即进出口需求的收入弹性变化受到实际有效汇率的实际平衡水平和工业平衡水平之间的差异的影响。产业均衡被定义为使当地制成品生产商与其贸易伙伴之间的实际单位劳动力成本相等的汇率水平。为了检验我们的假设，基于 1995 年至 2014 年世界投入产出数据库 (WIOD) 的数据，建立了 43 个国家的样本。首先，计算了实际和产业均衡的实际有效汇率；然后，在此期间估计每个国家的收入弹性。采用动态面板数据模型来估计这些弹性和这些汇率之间的差异之间的关系。结果表明，这些差异的大小改变了贸易的收入弹性，可能导致结构变化。