Global change projections predict more recurrent and intense drought coupled with more frequent soil disturbance events and increased levels of N deposition related to intensive land-use. How these abiotic drivers interact with each other and with biotic drivers in determining plant community dynamics is still unclear.

Our study aimed to disentangle the roles of biotic and abiotic drivers in plant natural succession after soil disturbance. We carried out a factorial field experiment in which we performed soil disturbance in two seasons and manipulated drought, N deposition and herbivory. After each disturbance event, we monitored plant establishment dynamics.

The species composition of plant communities established after disturbance was different in the early and late season trial probably due to different phenology of species from the seed bank. Depending on the timing of disturbance, plant communities responded differently to drought and N. In particular, seedling emergence and growth appeared sensitive to water stress only in the late season trial. Irrespective of the other treatments, arthropod herbivores increased the number of plant species established after soil disturbance. N generally had a negligible effect on plant community dynamics. We only observed positive effects of N on plant biomass in in the late season trial when there was a high water availability.

Under future global change, we expect drought to affect plant establishment after soil disturbance by interacting with biotic and abiotic drivers. In particular, we showed that overlooked drivers such as timing of soil disturbance and arthropod herbivory will play an important role in shaping novel plant communities. Our results stress the critical need to adopt a multiple factor approach when assessing global change impacts on plant community diversity, composition and recovery ability.