The impact of incidental emotions on decision making is well established. Incidental emotions can be differentiated on several appraisal dimensions, including certainty-uncertainty. The present research investigates the effect of certainty-uncertainty of incidental emotions on hedonic forecasting. The results of four experimental studies indicate that uncertainty-associated incidental emotions, such as fear and hope, compared with certainty emotions, such as anger and happiness, amplify predicted utility. This amplification effect is confirmed for opposite utility types; uncertainty-associated emotions, when compared with their certainty counterparts, lead to an overprediction of positive utilities and to an underprediction of negative utilities. This effect is mediated by the prediction task uncertainty, providing evidence for a carryover process of the incidental emotion. The effect of task uncertainty on predicted utility is, in turn, partly mediated by attention to the task, suggesting that an affective adaptation process lies behind the amplification of forecasts. Taken together, these findings extend the impact of certainty-uncertainty to the context of hedonic forecasting and further corroborate the impact of incidental emotions in judgment and decision making.

中文翻译：

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偶然的情绪和享乐主义的预测：不确定性的作用。

偶然的情绪对决策的影响是公认的。偶然的情感可以在几个评估维度上加以区分，包括确定性-不确定性。本研究调查了偶然情绪的确定性-不确定性对享乐主义预测的影响。四个实验研究的结果表明，与不确定性相关的偶然情绪（如恐惧和希望）与确定性情绪（如愤怒和幸福）相比，放大了预测的效用。对于相反的公用事业类型，可以确认这种放大效果。与不确定性相关的情绪相比，与不确定性相关的情绪会导致对正效用的高估和对负效用的低估。这种影响是由预测任务的不确定性所介导的，为附带情绪的结转过程提供证据。任务不确定性对预测效用的影响反过来部分地由对任务的关注所介导，这表明情感适应过程位于预测的放大之后。综上所述，这些发现将确定性不确定性的影响扩展到享乐主义预测的背景，并进一步证实了偶然情绪对判断和决策的影响。