No other text in the intellectual history of International Relations has become as frequent a victim of confirmation bias and selective presentism as has Thucydides’ History of the Peloponnesian War. Most recently, misinterpretations of the classical treatise have engendered the popular catchphrase, “the Thucydides’ Trap”, and thinkers and politicians’ resultant drawing of erroneous parallels between the Peloponnesian War and current Sino-US relations. This article seeks to deconstruct the Thucydides’ Trap core thematic of inadvertent escalation, and to outline the logic of hegemonic transition as it is actually expounded by Thucydides. Although Thucydides is the first thinker in the West clearly to identify the significance of structure in interstate affairs, his hegemonic transition theory is complex rather than purely systemic. Thucydides thus dedicates most of his work to assessing the strategic decisions made in fervid political debates, evidencing his perception of polity and politics as key elements that dynamically interact with structural conditions to effectuate strategic choice. Consequently, the Peloponnesian War was not an outcome of inadvertent escalation, but of premeditated strategic choices made by adversaries with clashing policy objectives. Therefore, within the structural constraints, it is on leadership and strategy that Thucydides puts a premium, and hence prioritizes prudence (Sophrosyne/Σωφροσύνη) as the most consequential virtue of statesmanship. Building on the Thucydidean logic of hegemonic transition, we conclude by presenting six strategic corollaries of contemporary Sino-US relations, remaining attentively cognizant at all times of the limitations of historical analogies, and abiding by ex antiquis et novissimis optima.

中文翻译：

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解开修昔底德陷阱：无意升级还是选择之战？

在国际关系的思想史上，没有其他文本像修昔底德的伯罗奔尼撒战争史那样频繁地成为确认偏见和选择性呈现主义的受害者。最近，对古典论文的误解产生了流行的口号，“修昔底德陷阱”，思想家和政治家由此错误地将伯罗奔尼撒战争与当前的中美关系相提并论。本文力图解构无意升级的修昔底德陷阱核心主题，勾勒出修昔底德实际阐述的霸权转型逻辑。尽管修昔底德是西方第一个明确认识到结构在国家间事务中意义的思想家，但他的霸权转型理论是复杂的，而不是纯粹的系统性理论。因此，修昔底德将他的大部分工作用于评估在激烈的政治辩论中做出的战略决策，证明他认为政体和政治是与结构条件动态相互作用以实现战略选择的关键要素。因此，伯罗奔尼撒战争不是无意升级的结果，而是政策目标冲突的对手有预谋的战略选择。因此，在结构约束内，修昔底德非常重视领导力和战略，因此将谨慎 (Sophrosyne/Σωφροσύνη)作为政治家最重要的美德。基于修昔底德的霸权转型逻辑，我们总结出当代中美关系的六大战略推论，时刻关注历史类比的局限性，恪守“从古到新”的最优解。