Does electoral fraud stabilize authoritarian rule or undermine it? The answer to this question rests in part on how voters evaluate regime candidates who engage in fraud. Using a survey experiment conducted after the 2016 elections in Russia, the authors find that voters withdraw their support from ruling party candidates who commit electoral fraud. This effect is especially large among strong supporters of the regime. Core regime supporters are more likely to have ex ante beliefs that elections are free and fair. Revealing that fraud has occurred significantly reduces their propensity to support the regime. The authors’ findings illustrate that fraud is costly for autocrats not just because it may ignite protest, but also because it can undermine the regime’s core base of electoral support. Because many of its strongest supporters expect free and fair elections, the regime has strong incentives to conceal or otherwise limit its use of electoral fraud.

中文翻译：

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选举操纵和政权支持

选举舞弊是稳定威权统治还是破坏它？这个问题的答案部分取决于选民如何评估参与欺诈的政权候选人。作者利用 2016 年俄罗斯选举后进行的一项调查实验发现，选民撤回了对选举舞弊的执政党候选人的支持。这种影响在该政权的坚定支持者中尤为明显。核心政权支持者更有可能事前相信选举是自由和公平的。揭露欺诈已经发生显着降低了他们支持该政权的倾向。作者的研究结果表明，舞弊对独裁者来说代价高昂，不仅因为它可能引发抗议，还因为它会破坏政权的选举支持核心基础。