This article sets out to explain how the relatively unremarkable 2018 by-election result in which a sitting Labor candidate held her seat with a mediocre swing towards her resulted in the panicked removal of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull from office and his immediate resignation from the parliament. The combined Queensland state Coalition party, the Liberal National Party, convinced itself that it could win the marginal outer-metropolitan seat of Longman in Queensland but when its expectations were dashed, it became spooked and set in train a chain of events that ousted Turnbull and installed Scott Morrison as prime minister. Turnbull was widely seen by the Coalition party room as having run a lack-lustre campaign in the 2016 federal election, and not having performed well in the 2018 by-election campaigns. Perhaps unwisely, Turnbull made the Longman by-election a direct leadership contest between himself and opposition leader Bill Shorten. However, Labor’s tactics in the by-election ‘outmanned, outspent and out-campaigned’ the Coalition’s faltering campaign in the seat, causing the relatively unremarkable outcome in Longman to become a catalyst for a challenge to Turnbull’s leadership. When parliament reconvened, Peter Dutton became the ‘stalking horse’ who resulted in the rise of Scott Morrison to the top office.

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2018年朗文补选：平凡的结果，不平凡的后果

本文旨在解释相对不起眼​​的 2018 年补选结果如何导致现任工党候选人以平庸的姿态占据席位，导致总理马尔科姆·特恩布尔（Malcolm Turnbull）惊慌失措地被免职，并立即从议会辞职。合并后的昆士兰州联盟党，即自由民族党，说服自己可以赢得昆士兰州朗文的边缘外围席位，但当它的期望落空时，它变得惊慌失措并引发了一系列事件，将特恩布尔和任命斯科特·莫里森为总理。联盟党党室普遍认为特恩布尔在 2016 年联邦大选中的竞选活动乏善可陈，并且在 2018 年的补选竞选中表现不佳。也许不明智，特恩布尔使朗文补选成为他与反对党领袖比尔·肖顿之间的直接领导力较量。然而，工党在补选中的策略“超过了人手、支出和竞选”，使得联盟党在席位上摇摇欲坠的竞选活动，导致朗文相对不起眼​​的结果成为挑战特恩布尔领导层的催化剂。当议会重新召开时，彼得·达顿成为导致斯科特·莫里森升任最高职位的“跟踪马”。