在未来气候的多模型预测中传达潜在的但不鲁棒的变化,International Journal of Climatology

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在未来气候的多模型预测中传达潜在的但不鲁棒的变化
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-06 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7041
Giuseppe Zappa _{1,

2} , Emanuele Bevacqua ₂ , Theodore G Shepherd ₂

Affiliation

IPCC报告中的未来气候预测通过地图直观地传达，该地图显示了气候模型对社会经济发展替代情景的平均反应。通过点按地图来突出显示较大的变化，在这些地图上，平均气候响应（信号）比内部变率（噪声）大，并且响应稳健，即各个模型的符号一致。此外，阴影线用于标记具有较小多模型均值变化的区域。这种方法可能无法识别不确定性较大且响应不可靠的区域中发生较大变化的风险。在这里，我们提出了一种更具参考价值的诊断方法来支持风险评估，该诊断方法是通过量化各个模型响应的平均强制信噪比而不是平均响应的信噪比来获得的。这使我们能够确定与逐年变化相比有较大未来变化的区域，而无论整个集合中的信号是否强劲。对于平均降水量变化，我们发现，从AR5预测来看，未标记区域的大部分（表面积的58％）和阴影区域的相当大的一部分（19％）隐藏了对RCP8.5情景的气候变化响应，与之相比，它们平均偏大。逐年变化。根据较新的CMIP6系综，尽管缺乏稳健的多模型预测，但仍有相当大的年均降水量变化潜力，但仍有超过22％的地面面积存在，特别是在中美洲，南美洲北部（包括南美洲）。亚马逊），中非和西非（包括萨赫勒地区的部分地区）以及海洋大陆。

"点击查看英文标题和摘要"

Communicating potentially large but non‐robust changes in multi‐model projections of future climate

The future climate projections in the IPCC reports are visually communicated via maps showing the mean response of climate models to alternative scenarios of socio‐economic development. The presence of large changes is highlighted by stippling the maps where the mean climate response (the signal) is large compared to internal variability (the noise) and the response is robust, that is, consistent in sign, across the individual models. In addition, hatching is used to mark the regions with a small multi‐model mean change. This approach may fail to recognize the risk of large changes in regions where the uncertainty is large and the response is not robust. Here, we present a more informative diagnostic to support risk assessment that is obtained by quantifying the mean forced signal‐to‐noise ratio of the individual model responses, rather than the signal‐to‐noise ratio of the mean response. This enables us to identify regions where a large future change compared to year‐to‐year variability is plausible, regardless of whether the signal is robust across the ensemble. For mean precipitation changes, we find that the majority (58% in surface area) of the unmarked regions and a sizeable portion (19%) of the hatched regions from the AR5 projections hid climate change responses to the RCP8.5 scenario that are on average large compared to the year‐to‐year variability. Based on the newer CMIP6 ensemble, a considerable potential for large annual‐mean precipitation changes, despite the lack of a robust multi‐model projection, exists over 22% of the surface land area, particularly in Central America, northern South America (including the Amazon), Central and West Africa (including parts of the Sahel), and the Maritime Continent.

更新日期：2021-02-06

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