ABSTRACT

Subjective life expectancy predicts actual mortality and provides individual timeframes. This four-year longitudinal study on Korean baby boomers in middle age examines how subjective life expectancy changes as people get older and how changes in health and socioeconomic status cause these shifts. Compared to population-based actuarial life expectancies, men in their fifties overestimated their future longevity by 1.2 years and women underestimated by 4.1 years. Subjective life expectancy increased as the baby boomers aged. The fixed effects regression analyses showed that subjective longevity changed along with known health and mortality factors. An increase in socioeconomic resources predicted an increase in subjective life expectancy, while smoking or health deterioration led to decrease. Generally, baby boomers form rational expectations on their future longevity based on established correlates of health and mortality. However, women’s underestimation of life expectancy warrants social concern on longevity risk.

摘要

主观预期寿命预测实际死亡率并提供个人时间框架。这项针对韩国中年婴儿潮一代的为期四年的纵向研究考察了人们的主观预期寿命如何随着年龄的增长而变化，以及健康和社会经济地位的变化如何导致这些变化。与基于人口的精算预期寿命相比，五十多岁的男性高估了自己未来的寿命 1.2 年，而女性则低估了 4.1 年。随着婴儿潮一代年龄的增长，主观预期寿命增加。固定效应回归分析表明，主观寿命随着已知的健康和死亡率因素而变化。社会经济资源的增加预示着主观预期寿命的增加，而吸烟或健康恶化导致减少。一般来说，婴儿潮一代根据健康和死亡率的既定关联对他们未来的寿命形成理性预期。然而，女性对预期寿命的低估值得社会关注长寿风险。