Abstract

The year 2019 saw the curtain rise on a US–China bipolar rivalry quite different from the Cold War US–Soviet bipolarity. The fundamental difference between the current bipolar rivalry and that during the Cold War is that ideology is no longer the main engine driving international competition, but rather the new digital dimension of strategic competition that is emerging between the United States and China. Technological advancement over the past 15 years has led world history’s entry into the early digital age. The development of digital technology has created new ways of protecting national security, of accumulating national wealth, and of obtaining international support. Cybersecurity is becoming the core of national security and the share of digital economy in major powers’ gross domestic product dramatically increases. For the leading powers, strategic competition in cyberspace in this early digital age outstrips to a crucial extent that within physical geographic boundaries. This article observes that Cold War mentality and digital mentality will have mixed impact on foreign policy-making in the digital age, and that interactions between the nations whose foreign policy is simultaneously influenced by both mentalities will shape the emerging international order into one of uneasy peace, where there is no direct war and few proxy wars. It will rather be a scenario reflecting the dark side of globalization and downside of global governance, evident in the violation of agreements, double dealing, cyber-attacks, and technology decoupling between states. Although further digital advancement will indeed change international politics in ever more aspects, US–China bipolar configuration will nevertheless remain in place for at least for two decades, or perhaps longer.

中文翻译：

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数字时代初期的双极竞争

摘要

2019年见证了美中两极对抗的幕后崛起，与冷战美苏两极分化截然不同。当前的两极竞争与冷战时期的根本区别是，意识形态不再是推动国际竞争的主要引擎，而是中美之间正在出现的战略竞争的新数字维度。在过去的15年中，技术的进步导致世界历史进入了早期的数字时代。数字技术的发展创造了保护国家安全，积累国家财富和获得国际支持的新途径。网络安全正在成为国家安全的核心，数字经济在主要大国的国内生产总值中所占的份额急剧增加。对于领导力量，在早期的数字时代，网络空间的战略竞争已经超出了物理地理界限内的关键范围。本文认为，在数字时代，冷战思维和数字思维将对外交决策产生不同的影响，外交政策同时受两种思维影响的国家之间的互动将使正在形成的国际秩序变成一种不安定的和平。 ，那里没有直接战争，很少有代理战争。相反，这将是反映全球化的阴暗面和全球治理的阴暗面的场景，这种现象在违反协议，双重交易，网络攻击和国家之间的技术脱钩方面表现得尤为明显。尽管进一步的数字发展确实将在更多方面改变国际政治，