Abstract

Seasonal components of infant probabilities of dying are disentangled from monthly death statistics by age and birth by articulating demographic equations and stochastic optimization. In the Don Army Territory, for the period 1872–1915, these components reflect respiratory diseases in autumn and spring, dehydration and waterborne diseases in summer, and cold stress in winter. During the warmer months, they were lower in cities. Summer heat had a lethal effect, mitigated by precipitation; illegitimate infants were exposed to the change of season; high winds increased mortality in late winter for 0–5 month infants and in summer for 6–11 month infants in cities. By the turn of the century, mortality had decreased, thanks to the gradual purification of water supplies and improved health practices.

摘要

通过阐明人口统计学方程式和随机优化，婴儿的死亡概率的季节性成分与年龄和出生的月度死亡统计数据无法区分开。在1872年至1915年的Don军区，这些成分反映了秋季和春季的呼吸道疾病，夏季的脱水和水传播疾病以及冬季的寒冷压力。在温暖的月份中，城市中的气温较低。夏季炎热具有致命作用，但降水会缓解这种情况。非婚生婴儿会受到季节变化的影响；大风增加了城市中0-5个月婴儿的冬末和夏季6-11个月婴儿的病死率。到本世纪初，由于供水的逐步净化和卫生习惯的改善，死亡率已降低。