This paper reviews resource sector developments in 12 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that made their first (major) petroleum discoveries during the most recent commodity boom. The analysis, which goes back to 2001, looks at sector forecasts of international organizations, governments, and companies and compares them with the results that emerged. The paper finds all 12 countries experienced disappointment. A third of the countries did not make any commercially viable discoveries. Among those that potentially had commercial finds, the latest timelines from discovery to production are 83 percent longer on average than initially expected. In the six countries for which there are comparable data, revenue collected thus far or the most recent revenue projections for countries yet to reach production are 63 percent lower on average than the initial forecasts. The paper also documents the various policies adopted in response to the discoveries and—with the benefit of hindsight—finds that, in some cases, this over optimism contributed to the ‘presource curse’: suboptimal policymaking that did not align with the new realities.

本文回顾了撒哈拉以南非洲12个国家的资源部门发展情况，这些国家在最近的商品繁荣时期首次发现（主要）石油。该分析追溯到2001年，着眼于国际组织，政府和公司的行业预测，并将其与出现的结果进行比较。该论文发现所有12个国家都感到失望。三分之一的国家没有任何商业上可行的发现。在那些可能具有商业发现的发现中，从发现到生产的最新时间平均比最初预期的时间长83％。在六个具有可比数据的国家中，到目前为止收集的收入或尚未达到生产状态的国家的最新收入预测平均比最初的预测低63％。该文件还记录了为响应这些发现而采取的各种政策，并在事后观察的好处下发现，在某些情况下，这种过度乐观导致了“源头诅咒”：与最佳现实不符的次优决策。