Identifying the nature and causes of penal change over decades can be a fraught exercise, particularly where those changes are gradual and the reasons for changes are diffuse. Like climate change and weather patterns, Australia’s rising prison population is the product of forces that are also evident in Western Anglophonic societies but that vary in scale and speed depending on local conditions. These forces include penal populism, media influences, risk aversion, and distrust of the judiciary. Changes in the balance of power between the legislature, the judiciary, and the executive, increasing the power of the former and restricting the discretionary powers of the latter, all contribute to increasing prison numbers and more persons under correctional supervision. But where some jurisdictions have seen the cost and futility of continuous expansion of penal populations and appear inclined to draw back, Australia seems determined to follow this senseless path.

中文翻译：

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在澳大利亚走的路：忽略过去，谴责未来

确定几十年来刑事变革的性质和原因可能是一件繁琐的工作，尤其是在那些变革是渐进的并且变革的原因分散的情况下。像气候变化和天气模式一样，澳大利亚不断增长的监狱人口是西方盎格鲁社会中显而易见的力量的产物，但其规模和速度因当地条件而异。这些力量包括刑事民粹主义，媒体影响，规避风险和对司法机构的不信任。立法机关，司法机关和行政机关之间权力平衡的变化，增加了前者的权力并限制了后者的酌处权，所有这些都导致监狱人数增加，并在惩教监督下增加了人员。