Predictions of dangerousness are more often wrong than right, use information they shouldn’t, and disproportionately damage minority offenders. Forty years ago, two-thirds of people predicted to be violent were not. For every two “true positives,” there were four “false positives.” Contemporary technology is little better: at best, three false positives for every two true positives. The best-informed specialists say that accuracy topped out a decade ago; further improvement is unlikely. All prediction instruments use ethically unjustifiable information. Most include variables such as youth and gender that are as unjust as race or eye color would be. No one can justly be blamed for being blue-eyed, young, male, or dark-skinned. All prediction instruments incorporate socioeconomic status variables that cause black, other minority, and disadvantaged offenders to be treated more harshly than white and privileged offenders. All use criminal history variables that are inflated for black and other minority offenders by deliberate and implicit bias, racially disparate practices, profiling, and drug law enforcement that targets minority individuals and neighborhoods.

中文翻译：

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判刑中的危险预测：《DéjàVu》再来一次

对危险性的预测通常是错误的，而不是正确的，使用不应有的信息，对少数族裔罪犯造成的损害不成比例。四十年前，有三分之二的人预测不会暴力。对于每两个“真阳性”，有四个“假阳性”。当代技术要好一点：充其量，每两个真实的肯定最多有三个错误的肯定。消息灵通的专家说，准确性达到了十年前。进一步改善的可能性不大。所有预测工具均使用道德上不合理的信息。大多数变量包括诸如年轻人和性别之类的变量，这些变量与种族或眼睛的颜色一样不公平。没有人可以因为蓝眼睛，年轻，男性或深色皮肤而受到指责。所有预测工具都包含会导致黑人，其他少数族裔，对处境不利的罪犯比白人和特权罪犯受到更严厉的对待。所有人都使用犯罪历史变量，这些变量是通过故意和隐含的偏见，种族差异的做法，特征描述以及针对少数群体和社区的毒品执法而为黑人和其他少数群体犯罪者夸大的。