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Heterogeneity in the Continuity and Change of Early and Adult Risk Factor Profiles of Incarcerated Individuals: A Latent Transition Analysis
Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice ( IF 1.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-31 , DOI: 10.1177/1541204020939648
Bryanna Fox 1 , Kelly Kortright 1 , Lexi Gill 1 , Daniela Oramas Mora 1 , Richard K. Moule 1 , Edelyn Verona 2
Affiliation  

Considerable research has examined risk factors for offending, but far less is known on the constellations of co-occurring risk factors, such as adverse childhood experiences and low self-control, and the overall continuity in risk between childhood/adolescence and adulthood. Using data on 735 adults incarcerated in a county jail in Florida, this study examines the latent heterogeneity in risk profiles using risk factors prominent in early years and adulthood, and whether risk profile severity changes across the early and adult risk models.

Latent Class Analyses revealed three risk profiles (low, medium, high) in both the early and adulthood risk factor models. Transition probabilities indicate continuity in high and low risk in the early and adult models, while escalation was found for those in the low and medium early risk profiles. These findings demonstrate the importance of identifying and addressing risk factors at an early age to disrupt continuity and escalation in risk over the life-course.



中文翻译:

被关押者的早期和成人危险因素分布的连续性和变化中的异质性:潜在转换分析

相当多的研究检查了犯罪的危险因素,但对于共同发生的危险因素的认知却很少,例如不良的童年经历和较低的自我控制能力,以及儿童/青少年和成年期之间的总体风险连续性。利用佛罗里达州一个县监狱中被监禁的735名成年人的数据,本研究使用早年和成年期突出的危险因素检查了风险概况中潜在的异质性,以及在早期和成人风险模型中,风险概况的严重性是否发生了变化。

潜在类别分析揭示了早期和成年风险因素模型中的三种风险特征(低,中,高)。转移概率表明,在早期和成人模型中,高风险和低风险具有连续性,而在中低风险模型中,那些风险呈上升趋势。这些发现证明了在早期识别和解决风险因素的重要性,以扰乱整个生命过程中风险的连续性和升级。

更新日期:2020-07-31
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