The SIQR model is reformulated where compartments for infected and quarantined are redefined so as to be appropriate to COVID-19, and exact properties of the model are presented. It is shown that the maximum number of infected at large depends strongly on the quarantine rate and that the quarantine measure is more effective than the lockdown measure in controlling the pandemic. The peak of the number of quarantined patients is shown to appear some time later than the time that the number of infected becomes maximum. On the basis of the expected utility theory, a theoretical framework to find out an optimum strategy in the space of lockdown measure and quarantine measure is proposed for minimizing the maximum number of infected and for controlling the outbreak of pandemic at its early stage.

重新制定了 SIQR 模型，其中重新定义了感染者和隔离者的隔间，以适合 COVID-19，并提出了该模型的确切属性。研究表明，最大感染人数在很大程度上取决于隔离率，并且隔离措施比封锁措施更能有效控制疫情。从图中可以看出，隔离人数的峰值出现时间晚于感染人数达到最大的时间。基于预期效用理论，提出了一个在封锁措施和隔离措施空间中寻找最佳策略的理论框架，以最大限度地减少最大感染人数并在早期控制大流行的爆发。