将地方尺度的水文变化与区域气候遥相关型联系起来,Hydrological Processes

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将地方尺度的水文变化与区域气候遥相关型联系起来
Hydrological Processes ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-18 , DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13982
Kabir Rasouli _{1,

2} , Karis Scharold ₃ , Taufique H. Mahmood ₃ , Nancy F. Glenn _{4,

5} , Danny Marks ₆

Affiliation

前几年的气候模式影响季节性的水和湿气条件。由于时空上的尺度差异，区域气候与当地水文学之间的联系具有挑战性。在这项研究中，进行了方差，相关性和奇异谱分析，以识别多个水文气候阶段，在这些阶段中，气候遥相关的模式与美国爱达荷州一个小水源流域的水文学有关。为此，结合了基于物理水文模型的现场观测和模拟。结果表明，该流域的气候遥相关型与水文通量之间具有统计上的显着关系，而气候指数解释了多达58％的水文变化。南极涛动（AAO），北大西洋涛动（NAO），北美太平洋（PNA）模式依次影响了山地水文，因为在NAO积极阶段，年径流量和雪上雨水（ROS）径流分别减少了43％和26％，在积极阶段则减少了25％和9％ PNA。AAO显示出与降水-降水比率有显着相关性，并解释了其年际变化的49％。径流响应受气候变化指数阶段和过去大气条件的影响。具体而言，NAO和PNA的遥距模式阶段的切换导致盆地中从潮湿状态过渡到干燥状态。阳性AAO与同年的峰值雪水当量和ROS径流无关，但前一年的AAO解释了24％和25％（通过在NAO的积极阶段将年径流量和雪上雨（ROS）径流分别减少43％和26％，在PNA的积极阶段将25％和9％减少。AAO显示出与降水-降水比率有显着相关性，并解释了其年际变化的49％。径流响应受气候变化指数阶段和过去大气条件的影响。具体而言，NAO和PNA的遥距模式阶段的切换导致盆地中从潮湿状态过渡到干燥状态。阳性AAO与同年的峰值雪水当量和ROS径流无关，但前一年的AAO解释了24％和25％（通过在NAO的积极阶段将年径流量和雪上雨（ROS）径流分别减少43％和26％，在PNA的积极阶段将25％和9％减少。AAO显示出与降水-降水比率有显着相关性，并解释了其年际变化的49％。径流响应受气候变化指数阶段和过去大气条件的影响。具体而言，NAO和PNA的遥距模式阶段的切换导致盆地中从潮湿状态过渡到干燥状态。阳性AAO与同年的峰值雪水当量和ROS径流无关，但前一年的AAO解释了24％和25％（AAO显示出与降水-降水比率有显着相关性，并解释了其年际变化的49％。径流响应受气候变化指数阶段和过去大气条件的影响。具体而言，NAO和PNA的遥距模式阶段的切换导致盆地中从潮湿状态过渡到干燥状态。阳性AAO与同年的峰值雪水当量和ROS径流无关，但前一年的AAO解释了24％和25％（AAO显示出与降水-降水比率有显着相关性，并解释了其年际变化的49％。径流响应受气候变化指数阶段和过去大气条件的影响。具体而言，NAO和PNA的遥距模式阶段的切换导致盆地中从潮湿状态过渡到干燥状态。阳性AAO与同年的峰值雪水当量和ROS径流无关，但前一年的AAO解释了24％和25％（NAO和PNA的遥距模式阶段的转换导致了盆地从湿到干的转变。阳性AAO与同年的峰值雪水当量和ROS径流无关，但前一年的AAO解释了24％和25％（NAO和PNA的遥距模式阶段的转换导致了盆地从湿到干的转变。阳性AAO与同年的峰值雪水当量和ROS径流无关，但前一年的AAO解释了24％和25％（p <0.05）的变化，表明过去的大气模式与当前条件在影响当地水文学方面同样重要。受风遮挡并作为雪源的地区显示出最低的ROS径流生成（与正常值相比低40％），这与NAO呈正相关，这解释了其变化的33％（p <0.01）。这项研究的结果突出了水文气候阶段和多年变化的重要性，在水文预报，气候预测和水资源规划中必须考虑这些因素。

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Linking hydrological variations at local scales to regional climate teleconnection patterns

Climate patterns over preceding years affect seasonal water and moisture conditions. The linkage between regional climate and local hydrology is challenging due to scale differences, both spatially and temporally. In this study, variance, correlation, and singular spectrum analyses were conducted to identify multiple hydroclimatic phases during which climate teleconnection patterns were related to hydrology of a small headwater basin in Idaho, USA. Combined field observations and simulations from a physically based hydrological model were used for this purpose. Results showed statistically significant relations between climate teleconnection patterns and hydrological fluxes in the basin, and climate indices explained up to 58% of hydrological variations. Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific North America (PNA) patterns affected mountain hydrology, in that order, by decreasing annual runoff and rain on snow (ROS) runoff by 43% and 26% during a positive phase of NAO and 25% and 9% during a positive phase of PNA. AAO showed a significant association with the rainfall‐to‐precipitation ratio and explained 49% of its interannual variation. The runoff response was affected by the phase of climate variability indices and the legacy of past atmospheric conditions. Specifically, a switch in the phase of the teleconnection patterns of NAO and PNA caused a transition from wet to dry conditions in the basin. Positive AAO showed no relation with peak snow water equivalent and ROS runoff in the same year, but AAO in the preceding year explained 24 and 25% (p < 0.05) of their variations, suggesting that the past atmospheric patterns are equally important as the present conditions in affecting local hydrology. Areas sheltered from the wind and acted as a source for snow transport showed the lowest (40% below normal) ROS runoff generation, which was associated with positive NAO that explained 33% (p < 0.01) of its variation. The findings of this research highlighted the importance of hydroclimatic phases and multiple year variations that must be considered in hydrological forecasts, climate projections, and water resources planning.

更新日期：2020-12-01

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